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Tucker Carlson Is a Sideshow

It’s entirely possible that Carlson influenced the Buffalo shooter. But we might be overstating the Fox News host’s reach.

Malcolm Gladwell

May 17
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The New York Times ran a three part series recently on the rise of the Fox News host Tucker Carlson. As you can imagine, it was not a flattering portrait: Carlson is described as demagogic, racist, nativist, cynical and countless other things. He has a calculated “on-air technique,” the article says, that involves “gleefully courting blowback, then fashioning himself as his aggrieved viewers’ partner in victimhood.” He has “adopted the rhetorical tropes and exotic fixations of white nationalists” in order to “channel [Americans’] fears into ratings.” He “declares himself an enemy of prejudice … a few weeks before accusing impoverished immigrants of making America dirty.”

I agree with much of that. I also agreed with the main premise of the article, which was that all those nasty things about Carlson matter because he is a uniquely powerful figure in American media. He’s the highest-rated talk show host in the nation!

But then I saw this tweet.

Father Coughlin was the most incendiary media figure of his day—the so-called “radio priest.” In the 1930s, he made weekly hour-long broadcasts from his church in Royal Oak, Michigan, called “Golden Hour of the Shrine of the Little Flower.” Coughlin thought Jewish bankers controlled the world, was fond of Hitler, hated immigrants, and thought all political parties ought to be abolished. He was a nasty piece of work. In his heyday—as Sam Haselby’s tweet says—he had an audience of 30 to 40 million people, at a time when the American population was 127 million.

Carlson and Coughlin may have superficial similarities. But Sam Haselby is right. Carlson isn’t the new Coughlin. To be Coughlin he would need to have an audience at least ten times larger. In his day, Coughlin was the main event. Carlson is a sideshow.

As it happens, I’ve been working on an episode of my podcast Revisionist History that talks about the changes in the television landscape over the past 50 years. So I had already been mulling over this same phenomenon. What “popular” means today is not the same as what it meant 50 years ago.

Here, for example, are the top-rated shows on broadcast TV fifty years ago—1972.

The “rating” number refers to the percentage of homes with a television who regularly watch that particular show.

Now compare that to the ratings list for 2018, the most recent year on record:

What we call a hit today would’ve been considered a complete bust half a century ago.

Those of us who are as old as I am remember what that old media world was like. Growing up in the 1970s, my friends and acquaintances and classmates all listened to the same music, went to see the same movies, and watched the same television shows. When I was in my thirties, in the early days of the internet, I used to write an email newsletter every week, which was a mock-serious analysis of the latest episode of Melrose Place. Did I think Melrose Place was the greatest TV show ever? Not in the slightest. But everyone I knew watched Melrose Place, and if I wanted to be part of the cultural conversation in my social circle, I needed to watch Melrose Place too. There is a reason that NBC in the glory days of Cheers and Seinfeld and Friends used to refer to its vaunted Thursday lineup as “must-see TV.” Network TV shows, back then, were must-see.

But there is no must-see TV today. The rise of cable and streaming have shattered the old mass market into a thousand pieces. The New York Times made much of the fact that Tucker Carlson is the most-watched TV news host. But let’s be clear: in a country of 326 million people, Carlson has an audience of 3 million. With that kind of reach, it is statistically unlikely that anyone reading this newsletter watches Tucker Carlson. It’s even statistically unlikely that any friend of anyone reading this newsletter watches Tucker Carlson. I am reminded of William F. Buckley’s crack, in the 1960s, when he heard someone described as “America’s greatest living socialist.” That was, Buckley said, like celebrating “the tallest building in Wichita, Kansas.”

Does this mean we treat Tucker Carlson with indifference? Not at all. Payton Gendron, the alleged 18-year-old white supremacist who murdered 10 people in a Buffalo supermarket over the weekend, was obsessed with the so-called “great replacement” theory—which suggests that liberals deliberately let in immigrants in order to dilute the power of nice, right-leaning white people. It is entirely possible that the shooter learned that bit of nonsense from Tucker Carlson, since the great replacement theory is a Carlson favorite.

But with Carlson, we are talking about a very different kind of threat from the likes of Father Coughlin. Coughlin was terrifying because he was spreading a message of hate and nativism to a wide swath of the American public. But that was also his undoing: in the end, his views proved far too unsavory for such a wide swath of the American public, because there’s a limit to what the average American can stomach. Carlson is the opposite phenomenon. He is a nasty little sideshow who depends, for his continued existence, on reaching such a tiny swath of the listening public that he can say whatever he wants for as long as he wants. I mean, if Payton Gendron is in your audience, it's going to be hard to go too far, isn’t it?

So who should we worry about more, the Coughlins or the Carlsons? I wish I knew the answer. But in many ways, it's the wrong question, because the fragmentation of the media landscape means that we can’t have Coughlins anymore. We can only have Carlsons. Let’s just hope that the hundred other minor media voices—speaking to their own narrow audiences—find a way to drown out the vitriol and the hate.

[Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images]

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76 Comments

  • Ian Bremmer
    Writes GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
    disagree. carlson may have a smaller direct audience, but in the internet age, his "ideas" get amplified by other influencers with a platform. this multiplier effect didn't exist before social media
    3
    • 5w
  • Dina Litovsky
    Writes In the Flash
    Good read
    • 4w
    • Edited
  • Carolyn Robe
    I don't know much about F Coughlin, but is it possible that one olther difference between him and Carlson is that Coughlin might have been sincere with his terrible ideology and beliefs, whereas Carlson seems more like a person who is merely u…
    See more
    5
    • 5w
  • Michael Gee
    Sad, in our fight for headlines we promote a racist asshole. Who really isn’t that popular unless u make him popular, which is what we do
    2
    • 5w
  • Laird Popkin
    I think you got your math wrong: "With that kind of reach, it is statistically unlikely that anyone reading this newsletter watches Tucker Carlson. It’s even statistically unlikely that any friend of anyone reading this newsletter watches Tucker Carlso…
    See more
    2
    • 5w
  • Daniel Brea
    Carlson is an entertainer and will feed his audience what they want to hear in search of higher ratings.
    • 5w
    1 Reply
  • Rick Snee
    I guess the question, when comparing Coughlin's 30 million listeners to Carlson's 3 million, is to consider who's listening. As in, what's the percentage of sitting government officials, elected or appointed, amplifying and enacting Carlson's ideology?…
    See more
    • 5w
  • Brandi Herrman
    I came here to say what others have said as well -- this is an underestimate of his reach. Think about the social following (5.2M twitter followers, 3.7M Facebook followers). Now, some are bots, of course. But not most. Plus, he's taking what's already…
    See more
    6
    • 5w
    2 Replies
  • Mark Golub
    I agree with your point, that the television market has become so fragmented that Tucker Carlson’s viewership numbers make him a relatively small fish in a vast network of ponds. But I see what may be a multiplier that makes his influence far greater t…
    See more
    • 5w
  • Trevor Doerksen
    Murdoch and his on-air men-in-makeup have some things that Coughlin didn't.
    1. Duplication of message through social media and hundreds of other media sources…
    See more
    6
    • 5w
    6 Replies
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